Research on the memory cycle

MemoryCapex covers DRAM, HBM, and NAND as a capital cycle rather than a product category. Supply discipline, fab capex, node transitions, and inventory behaviour drive pricing far more than quarterly demand headlines do.

Every piece is written to be falsifiable: an explicit thesis, the data behind it, and the conditions under which it stops being true. Charts are published with their source so the argument can be checked, not just read.

Sections are organised as Cycle Intelligence (supply, pricing, capex), Technology Intelligence (nodes, packaging, HBM roadmaps), Thesis Review (revisiting prior calls), and Market Structure (competitive dynamics and customer concentration).

Nothing published here is investment advice. It is research, and research is sometimes wrong.